Indoor transmission of COVID NOT likely

Indoor transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from medRxiv preprint server – Apr 2020

Finally, they’ve studied and validated what has always seemed obvious and logical to me: of course, a disease will spread more easily in a confined indoor area than out in the open!

Yet, our officials cooped us up in crowded indoor spaces even though that’s where you’re most likely to get infected from the prolonged close contact. This practically guaranteed that everyone would get sick if any single household member got sick.

Still, I was in favor of the lockdown as a desperate measure to buy us time to start research, craft policies to mitigate harm, and prepare our healthcare infrastructure for the predicted surge of patients needing intensive care.

But that didn’t happen…  Instead of working on preparations, our officials spent those months posturing and bickering with each other, and we are barely more prepared than before the lockdown.

I’m furious that we all had to endure months “grounded” while officials didn’t use this time for its stated purpose. They’ve proven themselves ignorant and incompetent, and they certainly don’t have our best interests in mind, so if they try to restart lockdowns, why should anyone listen again?

Even I can figure out some of what needs doing:

  • recruiting and training personnel (for contact tracing),
  • finding and deploying material resources (opioids, protective gear, syringes, other helpful medications, etc. and eventually a vaccine), where and when they are needed,
  • developing rules for allocating such supplies.
  • devising strategies for virus containment,
  • preparing detailed plans for mass immunizations or as soon as they become available
  • and on and on and on…

Too many people are making too many plans to create headlines instead of working with disease experts. They’re mishandling critical public health measures instead of making any progress “on the ground”.

Meanwhile, they closed all our local open spaces and hiking trails, where the contagion is much less likely and where there haven’t been outbreaks.

There are no sensible people in charge.


Here’s the study:

Indoor transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from medRxiv preprint server – Apr 2020

Background:

By early April 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had infected nearly one million people and had spread to nearly all countries worldwide. It is essential to understand where and how SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted.  

Methods:

Case reports were extracted from the local Municipal Health Commissions of 320 prefectural cities (municipalities) in China, not including Hubei province, between 4 January and 11 February 2020.

We identified all outbreaks involving three or more cases and reviewed the major characteristics of the enclosed spaces in which the outbreaks were reported and associated indoor environmental issues.

Results:

318 outbreaks with three or more cases were identified, involving 1245 confirmed cases in 120 prefectural cities.

We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories:

  1. homes,
  2. transport,
  3. food,
  4. entertainment,
  5. shopping, and
  6. miscellaneous.

Among the identified outbreaks,

  • 53.8% involved three cases,
  • 26.4% involved four cases, and
  • only 1.6% involved ten or more cases.

Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category).

Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases.

Conclusions:

All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk.

About medRxiv:  [FAQ]
medRxiv
(pronounced “med-archive”) is a free online archive and distribution server for complete but unpublished manuscripts (preprints) in the medical, clinical, and related health sciences.
Preprints are preliminary reports of work that have not been certified by peer review. They should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.

2 thoughts on “Indoor transmission of COVID NOT likely

  1. canarensis

    Too true. There’s been such an incredible mishmash of disinformation & plain asininity coming from the “upper” echelons, non-science people are hopelessly confused. I’ve seen more than one person driving along, alone in their car, all windows closed, with mask on. Every time, I wonder what they think is going to infect them while they’re alone in their cars. And the people who go in the other direction, call it a “plandemic,” & act as if there’s no virus or any such thing as a germ theory of disease.

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  2. BirdLoverInMichigan

    I won’t take an unproven vaccine for a constantly mutating virus made with a line of cells taken from a violently aborted human boy or girl.

    Uh, no thanks. I’ll wear my mask, my goggles, limit contact with others but never be injected with something like that. I’ll boost my nutrition, my vitamins, my exercise and my rest instead.

    My body, my choice as they say.

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